Major new EPA report assesses Ireland’s vulnerability to climate change impacts

• The EPA has today published the National Climate Change Risk Assessment which provides the first comprehensive assessment of where, when and how climate risks are likely to impact Ireland over the coming decades.
• The National Climate Change Risk Assessment provides government, business, communities and other stakeholders the best available evidence and analysis to inform climate adaptation and resilience in Ireland at a national level. The National Climate Change Risk Assessment identifies 115 risks from projected changes in climate conditions, including in energy, transport, communications, water security, public health, food production and supply and ecosystems.
• The significant risks identified by the report as requiring urgent action within the next five years are:
  • The risk of disruption and damage to communications and, energy distribution infrastructure due to extreme wind, and;
  • The risk of disruption and damage to buildings and transport infrastructure due to extreme wind, coastal erosion and coastal flooding.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has published the findings of Ireland’s first National Climate Change Risk Assessment (NCCRA). This major study was undertaken by the EPA in collaboration with government departments, state agencies, and other stakeholders to assess where, when and how climate risks are likely to impact Ireland over the coming decades.

The National Climate Change Risk Assessment provides government, business, communities and other stakeholders with the best available evidence and analysis to inform climate adaptation and resilience in Ireland at a national level. The risk assessment will support the development of Sectoral Adaptation Plans by key government departments, will guide the development of local authority adaptation plans and inform other national level adaptation responses.

The Risk Assessment identifies 115 risks from projected changes in climate conditions. Of these, 43 are deemed significant risks. The risks span all sectors of our economy, society, and environment from energy, transport and communications to water security, public health, food production and supply and ecosystems.

Speaking about the report, Laura Burke, EPA Director General said:

“We know that Ireland is being impacted by climate change already. This comprehensive assessment highlights the need for additional urgent action to ensure Ireland is sustainably resilient to the risks that we currently face, and will increasingly experience, in the coming decades.”

She added:

“This report, the first National Climate Change Risk Assessment, clearly shows how risks cascade across sectors. Recent events, such as Storms Darragh and Éowyn, demonstrated how damage to critical infrastructure such as energy, water supply, transport and communications networks in turn give rise to impacts on human health, biodiversity and the financial system. Addressing these risks in an integrated and consistent way is key to achieving our national climate resilience objective.”

The significant risks identified by the report as requiring urgent action within the next five years are:

• The risk of disruption and damage to communications and energy distribution infrastructure due to extreme wind, and;
• The risk of disruption and damage to buildings and transport infrastructure due to extreme wind, coastal erosion and coastal flooding.

Additional significant risks that should be prioritised for further investigation in the next five years include risks to the built environment and human health from flooding and heat.

Commenting on the report, Dr Eimear Cotter, Director of the EPA’s Office of Evidence and Assessment, said:

“Assessing climate risk is a key component of risk management and strategic planning. The National Climate Risk Assessment underscores the need for immediate action in the next five years to enhance the resilience of Ireland’s critical infrastructure to climate change. The risks with the most consequential and highest urgency ratings relate to extreme wind, coastal erosion and coastal flooding. These must be prioritised in adaptation and resilience actions to address climate risks and provide a basis for ensuring adaptation planning in Ireland is appropriately integrated across sectors.”

The Main Report and Summary for Policy Makers are now available on the EPA website and the Climate Ireland adaptation portal.

The NCCRA provides a comprehensive national overview of how Ireland is likely to be impacted by climate changes. Specifically, the report:

• identifies, ranks and prioritises national climate change risks;
• identifies areas where action needs to be prioritised to make Ireland more resilient to the impacts of climate change;
• supports the prioritisation of adaptation-related investments in infrastructure and improvement of the robustness of policy development in climate-sensitive sectors;
• provides a consistent evidence base on which to inform the development of the National Adaptation Framework and
• provides a national reference for conducting and updating sectoral, local, and other stakeholder adaptation plans in Ireland.

The NCCRA is Ireland’s first national semi-quantitative climate risk assessment. The NCCRA used a systems-based approach in-line with the EEA European Climate Risk Assessment. The NCCRA assesses risk on three time horizons; present to 2030, 2050 and 2100, and two scenarios; RCP 4.5(mid-range future emissions scenario) and RCP 8.5 (high end future emissions scenario).  The NCCRA process was completed in 3 stages:

Stage 1: Risk and opportunity identification,

Stage 2: Risk and opportunity assessment, and

Stage 3: Adaptation and decision urgency.

Collaboration and consultation were central elements in the NCCRA process. A 27-member Steering Committee was established along with Climate & Socio-Economic and Thematic Expert Working Groups. A wider consultation group consisting of 133 individuals from 84 organisations was also engaged during the NCCRA process.

The NCCRA Summary for Policy Makers, Main Report, Technical Report, Consultation Report, and Method Report are available on the EPA website, and the NCCRA page on Climate Ireland.