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EPA Projections Show Ireland Off Track for 2030 Climate Targets

Posted by on May 30, 2025 · Leave a Comment 

  • Ireland is projected to achieve a reduction of up to 23 per cent in total greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to a National target of 51 per cent.
  • To achieve a reduction of 23 per cent would require full implementation of a wide range of policies and plans across all sectors and for these to deliver the anticipated carbon savings.
  • The first carbon budget and second carbon budget are projected to be exceeded with almost all sectors on a trajectory to exceed their national sectoral emissions ceilings for 2030.
  • Ireland will not meet its EU Effort Sharing Regulation target of 42 per cent reduction by 2030, instead a maximum reduction of 22% is projected.
  • Total emissions from the Land Sector are projected to increase by up to 95% and Ireland is unlikely to meet our European commitments in this area.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has published its greenhouse gas emissions projections for the period 2024-2055.
EPA Projections Show Ireland Off Track for 2030 Climate TargetsEPA analysis shows that planned climate policies and measures, if fully implemented, could deliver up to 23 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 compared to 2018, down from the 29 per cent reduction projected last year. This widening gap to the emissions reduction target of 51 per cent in Ireland’s Climate Act is driven by updated information provided by Governmental bodies.
The first Carbon Budget (2021-2025) of 295 Mt CO2eq is now projected to be exceeded by between 8 to 12 Mt CO2eq. The second budget is now projected to be exceeded by a significant margin of 77 to 114 Mt CO2eq, including carryover from the first Carbon Budget.
Transport, Industry and the Buildings (Residential) sectors are projected to be the furthest from their sectoral emission ceilings in 2030, with emission reductions of up to 21%, 12% and 22% respectively. Agriculture emissions are projected to reduce by up to 16%. A direct comparison of the Agriculture sector against its Sectoral Emission Ceiling is no longer viable due to the impact of updated science underpinning the estimated agriculture greenhouse gas emissions.
Laura Burke, Director General, EPA said:
“The EPA’s projections show that full delivery of all climate action plans and policies could deliver a 23 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Although emissions trends are going in the right direction, the gaps to our European and National emission reduction targets are now projected to be larger than last year. This highlights the economy-wide effort needed to decarbonise our society and the focus must shift from policy aspiration to practical implementation.”
Ms Burke added:
“As we get closer to 2030 and receive more information on the impact of agreed policies and measures, it is concerning to see projected reductions and lack of progress in the delivery of actions to reduce emissions including in the electrification of our transport sector and the expansion of renewable electricity powering our homes and businesses and the implementation of carbon reduction measures in agriculture. Momentum is building for Ireland’s low carbon society, but we need to accelerate it and scale up the transition.”
Agriculture
Depending on the level of implementation of measures outlined in Climate Action Plans, AgClimatise and Teagasc MACC, total emissions from the Agriculture sector will range from a 1 per cent increase to a 16 per cent decrease over the period of 2018 to 2030. Savings are projected from a variety of measures including limits on nitrogen fertiliser usage, switching to different fertilisers and bovine feed additives.
 
Transport
Emissions from the sector are projected to reduce up to 21 per cent over the period 2018 to 2030 if the measures set out in plans and policies are implemented. These include over 640,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030, increased biofuel blend rates and measures to support more sustainable transport. Road freight is projected to be the biggest source of road transport greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.
 
Residential Emissions
Emissions from the sector arise from fuel combustion for domestic space and hot water heating. These are projected to decrease by up to 22 per cent by 2030. Emission reduction measures in this sector include 571,000 domestic heat pumps are projected to be installed by 2030.
Industry
Fuel combustion in manufacturing is the primary source of emissions in this sector; process emissions from mineral, chemical, and metal industries contribute the next largest portion. Emissions from this sector are projected to reduce by 12 per cent over the period 2018 to 2030 with full implementation of measures including the accelerated uptake of carbon-neutral heating technologies for low and high temperature heating, and increased use of biomethane.
 
Energy
Driven by a reduction in fossil fuel usage and increased net importation of electricity from interconnectors, there was a marked drop of over 21 per cent in emissions from electricity generation between 2022 and 2023.  In combination with planned increases in renewable energy generation from wind and solar, energy sector emissions are projected to reduce by up to 68 per cent (over the period 2018 to 2030) and are projected to achieve over 68 per cent renewable electricity generation by 2030.
 
Land use
Emissions from this sector are projected to increase between 39 per cent to 95 per cent over the period of 2018 to 2030 as our forestry reaches harvesting age and changes from a carbon sink to a carbon source. Planned policies and measures for the sector, such as increased afforestation, water table management on agricultural organic soils and peatland rehabilitation are projected to reduce the extent of the emissions increase.
Commenting, Mary Frances Rochford, Programme Manager said:
“The Agriculture sector has made some progress in reducing emissions through the successful rollout of actions on nitrogen fertilisers, low emission spreading technologies and national liming programmes. In parallel, in line with new research, the EPA refined the information underpinning the agricultural figures which has led to a reduction in the overall agriculture emission estimates. It is imperative that this new research and information is incorporated into updated carbon budgets and sectoral ceilings to ensure that they reflect latest science, data and knowledge on greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland and alignment with the national reduction target for the sector of 25%.”
For further detail on these figures, see the EPA report Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections 2024 to 2055 and EPA Greenhouse Gas web resource on the EPA website.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is the national body with responsibility to develop, prepare and publish projections of greenhouse gas emissions for Ireland. The EPA produces national greenhouse gas emission projections on an annual basis. These projections are compiled in accordance with, and to meet, EU reporting obligations. At a national level this report informs policy and monitors and reports Ireland’s climate action performance to Government under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act (Amendment) 2021 and to the public as outlined in Climate Action Plans.
It is an obligation under the Climate Act that, where the total greenhouse gas emissions for a preceding budget period exceed the carbon budget for that period, the excess greenhouse gas emissions from the preceding budget period is carried forward to the next period. The carbon budget for the next period is then decreased by the amount carried forward.
The EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Emission projection is an estimate of what emission levels are likely to be in the future. They are based on key assumptions such as economic growth, fuel prices and Government policy.
This is the fourth set of projections prepared following the enactment of the Climate Act and the 51 per cent target contained therein. The policies and measures contained in the Climate Action Plan 2024 and previous Plans are included in the projections with a number of exceptions including:
  • Onshore wind of 7.1 GW, offshore wind of 2.7 GW and 6.3 GW of solar PV was required to achieve 68 per cent share of renewable electricity by 2030. This compares with 9 GW onshore wind, 5 GW offshore wind and 8 GW of solar PV stated for the 80 per cent target in the Climate Action Plan 2024;
  • The full CAP 2024 ambition of 945,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030 is not modelled. Instead, a total of 640,750 electric vehicles is modelled in the WAM scenario, based on updated information from the Department of Transport;
  • The full 2 GW target for new flexible gas fired generation is not modelled. However, Eirgrid data was used to produce an adjusted trajectory yielding new gas fired generation of 1.4 GW by 2030;
  • Climate Action Plan 2023 introduced an Avoid/Shift policy with multiple measures to achieve an abatement of 2.09 Mt CO2 eq by 2030 in transport relative to 2018, which was applied again in the Climate Action Plan 2024. One of these modelled measures relating to price increases in petrol and diesel out to 2030 has no supporting policy and is not modelled;
  • Measures aimed at achieving emissions savings from a decrease in embodied carbon in construction materials (1.0 Mt CO2 abatement by 2030) aren’t currently modelled;
  • Emissions reductions associated with Carbon Capture and Storage are not currently modelled;
  • The Climate Action Plan 2024 target of a 70-75 per cent share in renewable heat in industry is not specifically modelled. Instead, current Support Scheme for Renewable Heat (SSRH) grant rates are modelled to 2055;
  • Diversification measures in Agriculture with annual savings by 2030 of 1.5 Mt CO2 eq is not currently modelled;
  • Unallocated savings of 5.25 Mt CO2 eq per annum 2026-2030 (or 26.25 Mt CO2 eq cumulatively by 2030) as stated in the Climate Action Plan 2024 are not modelled.
New scientific research has led to a reduction in emissions from the Agriculture sector in the 1990 to 2023 national greenhouse gas inventory upon which these projections are based. Estimates of methane and nitrous oxide emissions associated with non-dairy cattle and sheep categories have been updated.
With respect to non-dairy cattle, models now include additional disaggregation of production systems within the herd and linked to detailed output from the Irish Cattle Breeding Federation (ICBF) databases. This approach allows for more detailed estimates of a larger number of production system cohorts from birth to slaughter, revised live weight and average daily weight gain incorporated at more refined levels, and tracks the changes in slaughter age.
With respect to sheep, a Tier 2 approach to estimating emissions from the national flock developed by Teagasc has been implemented. In comparison to the previous approach, which was based on default IPCC Guideline assumptions, country specific parameters associated with sheep production in Ireland are used including parameters such as feed characteristics, fecundity, lambing patterns, mortality, liveweights and liveweight gains.
All methodologies are detailed in Ireland’s National Inventory Document 2025 and summarised in Ireland’s Final Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2023 report.
EU Targets
EU greenhouse gas emission targets and reduction obligations for Ireland are split into two broad categories. The first category covers the large energy and power (i.e. energy intensive) industry which are controlled under the EU Emissions Trading System. The second category deals with the non- EU Emissions Trading System sectors such as agriculture, transport, residential, commercial, waste and non-energy intensive industry.
The Environmental Protection Agency produces greenhouse gas emissions projections on an annual basis for all sectors of the economy in collaboration with relevant State and other bodies. The following are key underlying data that underpin this year’s greenhouse gas emissions projections:
  • Energy-related emissions projections are based on updated energy projections provided to the Environmental Protection Agency by the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland in Q1 2025.
  • The energy projections were prepared in conjunction with the Economic and Social Research Institute who produced energy demand projections using the I3E model (Ireland Environment, Energy and Economy model).
  • Agriculture emissions projections are based on data from Teagasc which was provided to the Environmental Protection Agency in February 2025.
On 14th May 2018, the European Council adopted a regulation (EU 2018/842 – the Effort Sharing Regulation) on greenhouse gas emission reductions. The regulation sets out binding emission reduction targets for member states in sectors falling outside the scope of the EU emissions trading system for the period 2021-2030. In April 2023 the Effort Sharing Regulation was amended (EU 2023/857) and Ireland’s new 2030 target under the Effort Sharing Regulation is to limit its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 42 per cent by 2030.
Annual emission limits out to 2025 for the 42 per cent reduction were set by the EU in 2023, with limits out to 2030 to be set later in 2025. Under the Effort Sharing Regulation two flexibilities may be utilised to allow for a fair and cost-efficient achievement of the target. These flexibilities are the use of EU Emissions Trading System allowances and credit from action undertaken in the Land use, Land use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector.
Flexibilities under the Effort Sharing Regulation include the allowance by eligible Member States to achieve their national targets by covering some emissions with EU ETS allowances which would normally have been auctioned. EU-wide, this cannot be more than a combined total of 100 million tonnes CO2 over the period 2021-2030. The ETS flexibility allows Ireland to transfer emissions of up to 4 per cent of 2005 levels per annum, or 19.1 Mt CO2 eq from the non-ETS to ETS sector, reducing the mitigation requirement in the non-ETS sector while cancelling the corresponding ETS allowances.
Also, to stimulate additional action in the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, Member States can use up to a combined (EU-wide) total of 262 million credits over the entire period 2021-2030 to comply with their national targets. The LULUCF flexibility allows for Ireland to account for greenhouse gas removals of up to 26.8 Mt CO2 eq over two compliance periods 2021-2025 and 2026-2030.
Scenarios Used
Greenhouse gas emissions are projected to the year 2055 using two scenarios:
  • The With Existing Measures (WEM) scenario is a projection of future emissions based on the measures currently implemented and actions committed to by Government. To become part of the WEM scenario a policy or measure must be in place by the end of 2023 (the latest inventory year) and the projected emissions reduction is commensurate with the resources or legislation already in place or committed to Government Departments or Agencies. For example, the WEM scenario now includes a biofuel blend rate of B20 by 2030. This policy is considered as implemented because it is underpinned by the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation and a 2023 Renewable Transport Fuel Policy statement from the Department of Transport).
  • The With Additional Measures (WAM) scenario is a projection of future emissions based on implemented measures included in the WEM scenario plus additional planned measures that are under discussion (as per plans, programmes or other policy documents) and have a realistic chance of implementation in the future (e.g. by 2030). The WAM scenario is based on the measures in the latest Government plans at the time the projections were compiled (such as the Climate Action Plan 2024) which have a realistic pathway in place for implementation. For example, the WAM scenario assumes 640,750 Electric Vehicles on the road by 2030 based on updated information from the Department of Transport, lower than the full Climate Action Plan 2024 ambition of 945,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030. The With Existing Measures scenario only assumes 564,000 Electric Vehicles on the road by 2030.

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